Univision polling finds Democratic candidates could beat Trump and flip Texas in 2020

Republicans could be at risk of losing Texas in the 2020 presidential election, a new poll from Univision, Latino Decisions, and North Star Opinions says, finding that a number of leading Democratic presidential candidates could beat Donald Trump and turn the state blue for the first time in four decades.

“The Latino vote could be decisive,” the polling finds. “A large majority of Hispanics (69%) surveyed in the state said they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate, compared with 19% who plan to support Trump (also including undecided voters who are leaning one way or another).” Overall. 44% of registered voters said they will vote for the Democratic candidate while just 33% say they’ll go Trump. “If undecided voters leaning one way or the other are included, the advantage would be 47% to 42% in favor of the Democrats.”

This comes as Democrats are about to hold their third debate in Houston this Thursday, and the polling shows a number of those candidates beating Trump among Texans overall, some handily: Bernie Sanders by six points (48% to 42%), Joe Biden by four points (47% to 43%), Julián Castro by three points (44% to 41%), Cory Booker by two points (43% to 41%), Elizabeth Warren by two points (44% to 42%), and Kamala Harris by one point (45% to 44%).

Among Latinos nationally, Sanders leads in favorability (67%), followed by Biden (64%), Castro (54%), Warren (increasing by nine to 53%), and Harris (50%). Castro and Beto O’Rourke, both from Texas, are the only two Democratic candidates to have higher favorability among Texas Latinos compared to Latinos nationally, the latter by 14 points.

Some in the beltway media also seem to be convinced that Trump’s anti-immigrant and anti-Latino actions are a political advantage to him, but the polling says otherwise. “According to the national poll, President Trump‘s management style continues to generate a strong rejection among Hispanics, with four out of five registered voters disapproving of the president’s performance,” the polling continues. 

One month after the deadly white supremacist terror attack that targeted Latinos in El Paso, nearly 69% of Latinos in the state say they live in fear of another deadly attack, with 67% saying Trump has made race relations worse. In fact, 71% said they agreed that “the El Paso shooter was a racist who was influenced by anti-immigrant and anti-Mexican statements made by President Trump.”

Of course, polling means nothing without action, and Democrats must keep dedicating proper resources to the state, and includes supporting the work of local organizations registering new voters, like Jolt Initiative. Those local advocates have long said that it’s not that Texas is a red state, it’s a non-voting state, and with a true effort to get women and voters of color out to vote, history could truly be made there in 2020.
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